Executive Summary
In this report attendance, demographic and traffic data gathered at Midwest FurFest Registration over the past five years, the complete existence of the convention, is presented. Attendance data shows that we are continuing to maintain a healthy rate of growth (approximately 20%). Our sponsorship rate is improving as well, though not what it has been in past years. The rate of preregistered attendees is on the downward trend, something that we need to improve on if we hope to be able to provide reliable forecasts of attendees before the convention.
For the demographics data, the biggest trend was that was observed was a widening of the distribution of attendees over the United States and Canada, though attendance from outside of North America remains negligible. Traffic data shows that we continue to have an excellent throughput of attendees at peak times. It would also appear that more attendees are arriving earlier.
Attendance Data
First, the raw numbers:
| 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total attendees (staff excluded) | 446 | 482 | 639 | 748 | 885 |
| Staff | 27 | 29 | 46 | 52 | 74 |
| Total attendees (staff included) | 473 | 511 | 685 | 800 | 959 |
| Percent increase in attendance | — | 8.1% | 32.5% | 16.8% | 19.9% |
| Preregistered attendees (sponsors included) | n/a | 212 | 344 | 386 | 446 |
| Preregistered sponsors | n/a | 51 | 69 | 64 | 66 |
| At-the-Door sponsors | n/a | 34 | 26 | 19 | 24 |
| Staff sponsors | n/a | 11 | 13 | 6 | 19 |
| Total sponsors | 37 | 85 | 108 | 83 | 109 |
| % Sponsors | 7.8% | 16.6% | 15.8% | 10.4% | 11.4% |
Our attendance has proven steady over the last few years, as shown below. The slight dip in 2001 is most likely due to the unfortunate events of that year. A simple linear extrapolation shows that we are on track to easily break the 1,000 attendee mark for certain next year and, if trends continue, see approximately 1,200 attendees in 2006.
2004 was a great year for sponsors, but we are still working to re-attain our previous peak sponsor rate (percentage of attendees who purchase sponsorships). This is both an important revenue source for the convention and a prime source of goodwill, since MFF treats its sponsors very well. I believe that as word of mouth spreads about the benefits of sponsorship spreads, we will be seeing this number increase to our previous records.
The pre-registration rate, the percentage of attendees who pre-register before the convention, has been falling over the past few years. While this is not particularly catastrophic, it is a mild annoyance for Registration when trying to forecast such things as how many Registration Bags are needed, or how many sponsorship gifts to order. In the future (i.e. 2006 and beyond) we are going to need to consider ways to improve our pre-registration rate, perhaps with sharper increases from pre-registration to at the door membership rates.
| Year | % Pre-Registered |
|---|---|
| 2001 | 44.0% |
| 2002 | 53.8% |
| 2003 | 51.6% |
| 2004 | 50.4% |
Demographic Data
First, the raw numbers:
| 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| AL | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.8% |
| AR | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% |
| AZ | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.3% |
| BC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.7% |
| CA | 2.3% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 5.7% |
| CO | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% |
| CT | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.6% |
| DC | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| FL | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.2% |
| GA | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 2.1% |
| GB | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| IA | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.4% |
| ID | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| IL | 25.9% | 25.3% | 25.4% | 24.2% |
| IN | 3.9% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 5.3% |
| KS | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.2% |
| KY | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| MA | 2.9% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.0% |
| MB | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.7% |
| MD | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 1.0% |
| MI | 9.1% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.6% |
| MN | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.0% |
| MO | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.2% |
| MS | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| MT | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| MX | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| NC | 1.2% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.9% |
| NE | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| NH | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% |
| NJ | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.8% |
| NM | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| NS | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| NV | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| NY | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.2% |
| OH | 7.5% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.2% |
| OK | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| ON | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.2% |
| OR | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| PA | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 1.8% |
| PQ | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.7% |
| SC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| SK | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| SU | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| TN | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.2% |
| TX | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 1.5% |
| UT | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% |
| VA | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.7% |
| VT | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| WA | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 1.0% |
| WI | 10.8% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 10.0% |
| WV | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| WY | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
Note that the data above reflects two attendees from outside of North America, one from Sweden (SU) and one from the United Kingdom (UK).
This data can be summarized by region as follows:
| 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Midwest | 65.9% | 69.8% | 66.0% | 65.7% | 62.8% | (IL, WI, IN, MI, MN, OH, MO, IA) |
| Northeast | 5.8% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.4% | (NH, VT, MA, NY, CT, RI) |
| Mid-Atlantic | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 4.6% | (PA, MD, VA, WV) |
| South | n/a | 12.4% | 12.4% | 11.3% | 9.3% | (NC, SC, GA, FL, AL, TN, KY, AL, MS, LA, AR, TX) |
| Canada | n/a | 2.50% | 3.51% | 4.01% | 6.20% | (All Provinces) |
| West Coast | 7.4% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 6.8% | (CA, OR, WA) |
| East Coast | 14.6% | 16.4% | 13.7% | 13.8% | 14.3% | (ME, NH, VT, MA, RI, CT, NY, PA, DE, MD, VA, NC, SC, GA, FL) |
While our attendees are still coming from all over, a couple of things are interesting to note: 1.) A drop in attendance from the South. This is possibly due to fewer fans to pull from in that region, or fewer fans willing to travel. Also, there’s a possibility that their convention needs are being served by smaller regional conventions like Furry Weekend Atlanta, Pawpet Megaplex, Rocket City Furmeet, and Texas Furry Con. 2.) A surprising rise in attendance from Canada. This could be due to having a Canadian Guest of Honor, or good word of mouth among the fans there. 3.) The falling percentage of attendees from the Midwest. I’m certain this is due less to a lower turnout from the Midwest and more to an influx of attendees from other areas of North America.
The one thing that is dramatically apparent, though, is that Midwest FurFest is slowly moving beyond being a regional convention and more of a national convention. This is best shown by charting the broad distribution of U.S. attendees:
Traffic Data
Starting last year we began time-stamping every record from the Registration Database as it was printed. This allows us to examine the flow of traffic through Registration over the course of the weekend, which in turn leads to better prediction of what staffing levels will be necessary when and where improvements to the Registration processes can be made. An hourly traffic analysis shows graphically the huge crush of attendees who register in the opening hours of the convention:
As you can see, the first few hours of Thursday night are the peak processing times, and at our maximum we were printing one badge every 19.4 seconds, a very slight improvement on last year’s top speed of one badge every 20.7 seconds. This is not too surprising since we had roughly the same number of terminals available last year and this year, though the slight improvement may be that we abandoned using the older, slower client laptops (nothing faster than a Pentium 166) in favor of laptops donated by Registration staff (to whom I am eternally grateful!).
Unfortunately (and this isn’t reflected in the data) while we doubled the number of printers we were using from 1 to 2, the printers were still the choke point in the Registration process. Analysis and testing of all available printers will be necessary over the next year to see if there is a way to speed this part of the process along.
Finally, if the traffic data is reduced to percentages for easier comparison between last year and this year, one inescapable conclusion can be drawn, and this was observed anecdotally by many as well: More attendees are arriving earlier.
The ramifications of this still need to be considered, but the possibility of offering more for attendees to do or have better organized events on Thursday night will definitely need to be considered.
This concludes my wrap-up of Midwest FurFest 2004 Registration. If anyone has any suggestion, comments, or ideas, please feel free to comment here or e-mail me at registration@furfest.org. Thanks, and see you next year!
*grin* Of course, if you offer events Thursday night, you’ll start getting people showing up on Wednesday…
But we already have people showing up on Wednesday! Heck, next year, anyone who I see there on Wednesday gets put to work stuff Registration bags!
Next year I plan on turning up Wednesday night if possible so I can spend all day Thursday at the Brookfield Zoo. They have WOLVES! 🙂 I hope to get up there in the Spring to go there too. Chicago is such an awesome city to visit! I’d hate to have to commute to work there every day though… {chuckle}
Hey, it beats commuting in Los Angeles, let me tell you.
Your graphs are obnoxiously huge! Thank you for putting it behind a cut:D Btw..cant wait to do staff reg. next year 😀
Hey, be glad I used the “thumbnails” that LJ provided 🙂 And I’ll be happy to put you to work! Thanks for volunteering this year.
The one thing that is dramatically apparent, though, is that Midwest FurFest is slowly moving beyond being a regional convention and more of a national convention.
Did anyone else just feel a chill?
I agree, growth presents a challenge. One fascinating things to me is to have worked in the Furry Spirit track with people from California whose needs were not being met at cons there. I have encouraged them to take a little bit of MFF home with them and share that at FC. Any human endeavor is only what we, the participants make of it. That’s why I volunteer on staff.
Growth in the con attendance since 2000 (with the exception of an anomalously low attendance in 2001, which can be explained by 9/11) has been remarkably steady, around 19%/year (doubling every four years). We’re seeing steady exponential growth.
Things don’t grow exponentially forever. The mathematical model used for saturating growth is the logistic curve. This curves starts exponential, then transitions to linear growth, then asymptotically approaches a plateau.
If MFF attendance is growing according to this kind of curve, we’re still on the early exponential phase. This means the ultimate plateau would be at least twice, and possibly more, than the 2004 attendance. So I would not be surprised if MFF reaches 2000+ attendance by 2010.
I will be 30 years old in 2010. I don’t quite know what’s more disconcerting, the idea that it’s not so far away, or that I’ve been doing this thing since it started…
You and me both.
And I’ve been working on it for a year and a half before it started.
Damn, I am impressed! You did a good job with this analysis, and of course, you and your staff did a great job at the con. Thanks for both!
As MFF moves from a predominately regional event towards being more of a continental event – that is drawing from across the US and Canada – I hope that the convention does not loose it’s friendly, “Midwestern” character. I do not want to give disrespect to other conventions with other characters. But there’s something about MFF that feels very nice, like a second home for me. That’s why I keep coming back every year. Part of that is knowing people there to be sure. Part of it is the minimal amount of melodrama and angst. But there’s something else too that I can’t find words for.
There’s a little bit of magic at MFF. I hope that as the con grows (which is surely will) that that will not be lost. Take care!
Thanks! And thank you for the time and effort you put in for programming as well. That’s a big part of the convention and something that helps keep people coming back for more.
As for keeping the “character” of Midwest FurFest, I’ve heard many people talk about that and honestly I have no idea what we are doing to achieve that character and how we might go about keeping it. The only thing I can think of is that we’ve built a fantastic staff that really works well together, and I think that a lot of that shows through to the attendees. If we can maintain that, we can keep the spirit of MFF alive as we grow.
First off, great job with the report. As for pre-reg numbers, I think there really was more economic uncertainty this year than last. People just weren’t sure they’d be able to afford the trip until later. The percentage drop is pretty small in any case. It’s still tracking a little above 50%. I wouldn’t lower the pre-reg rate at all. If anything, raise the at the door by $5, $10, or even more. At this point, it’s no longer so much a matter of needing the money early to pay for the con as a need to be able to plan reasonably accurately the numbers to expect. People registering at the door make that more difficult, thus the premium in cost to do so. The trick is finding out where the maximum in motivation ends and the lowering of attendance due to people unable to comit early who can’t or don’t wish to pay that premium starts. We are pretty well self-sustaining at this point otherwise.
As for the character of the convention, I think part of it is what you mentioned. Part of it is the mix of panels and programming. There seems to be something for everyone with enough under each topic to provide for all. The same goes for our special events. I’ve not heard anyone say they were bored.
Finally, there is our con suite. It rocks. Every attendee at any level membership knows they can get a reasonable meal there if needed. We serve actual food items and name brand soda. I think that shows a certain amount of concern for our attendees’ needs.
When it comes down to it, our attendees are paying their registration with the expectation that we’ll spend that money in such a way that they have a great time. We seem to be doing a good job of that. As long as we do, we’ll likely continue to grow.
Not to sound cryptic, but you’re doing it right now. The reason my arm didn’t have to be twisted to get me on staff this year was and is the people that I knew I’d find myself working with. You and Takaza and the rest of the staff at previous MFF’s have always made me feel like I was a guest in your home. I hope I was able to extend at least some of that from where I was as Gopher Second.
“In the future (i.e. 2006 and beyond) we are going to need to consider ways to improve our pre-registration rate, perhaps with sharper increases from pre-registration to at the door membership rates.”
I’m not sure if you’re counting people as pre-registered if they mailed in or registered online or just the ones that registered before it went to $40. I registered online, but after it went to $40.
In my case, and I’m sure it’s the same with a large percentage of others, I wasn’t sure whether or not I could go. It would suck to pay to go to a con and not be able to attend (and only get a con book for the money). While I’m willing to pay $40 to go to a con, I would have to really think about paying much more than that. While you’d succeed in getting the people who are planning on going anyway, but aren’t getting around to signing up, I think you’ll wind up losing a good portion of that 49.6% that aren’t pre-registered if the penalty is too great.
I’m counting pre-registered as anyone who paid any amount of money for a membership before we opened Registration on Thursday night.
Those are certainly some fair observations about membership fees, and I want to stress that while a high pre-registration rate is nice, it’s by no means a must-have for the convention. We keep a sizable nest-egg (well, as sizable as the IRS will allow, anyway!) from year to year and we’re not hard-up for capital early in the year. The only way I see that registration rates would go up would be if it were justified versus the expenses to put on the convention. I can categorically state right now that we have nowhere near the amount of expenses that would require that so rates will not be going up.
I suppose one thing that would be possible would be to lower the pre-reg rate to $25, or extend the period of time that it would be available (currently the $25 rate ends on December 1 and goes up to $30). But then we increase the pre-reg rate at the expense of taking money out of the con’s pocket. Is it worth it? I don’t think so. So I’ll just suck up the low pre-reg rates 🙂
I find it rather impressive that we haven’t had to raise regular membership rates since the con started. And that even though we’ve fiddled with the sponsorship rates, they’ve continued to rise.
2.) A surprising rise in attendance from Canada. This could be due to having a Canadian Guest of Honor, or good word of mouth among the fans there.
…or that six folks from Manitoba showed up this year, where there were none any of the years before. Apparently we travel only in packs. 🙂
The graph accompanied with this heading:
“This data can be summarized by region as follows:”
does not include Nebraska as listed in the Midwest category… and ya know what… I am personally hurt… well… not THAT hurt *grins*
I would like to know who the other two from Nebraska were… besides John and I. possibility?
Well, I never expected all four of the people who live in Nebraska to show up at once 🙂
And sorry, no can do. Our Privacy Policy forbids giving out that kind of information.
*chuckles* Someone should have gone into statistics. 🙂
The sad thing is, I sucked at statistics in college. Something to do with the professor sleepwalking through the class while being completely bored out of my mind. Believe it or not, it’s the *only* class I ever took where I skipped class with any regularity…and my grades showed it.
No, this is more of a result of years and years and years of writing reports and presentation on chemical laboratory data. If I wanted to get hard-core into the statistics I could apply the logistical model that Neowolf mentioned, but I don’t so I won’t 🙂